By Ken Crippen
Pro Football Researchers Association


San Francisco still leads the pack in rusher rating differential by a wide margin. As the only team to not allow a rushing touchdown this year, they are without a doubt the best rushing defense, as their league-leading 54.19 Defensive Rusher Rating shows. Here are all 32 teams ranked, based on Rusher Rating Differential, for the season:
 
Team Rushing Attempts Offensive Rusher Rating Defensive Rushing Attempts Defensive Rusher Rating Rusher Rating Differential
San Francisco 49ers 266 99.59 192 54.19 45.90
Baltimore Ravens 221 98.03 249 69.44 28.59
Minnesota Vikings 252 117.35 229 93.94 23.41
Houston Texans 357 103.69 219 86.61 17.08
Atlanta Falcons 255 103.46 211 87.56 15.90
Miami Dolphins 247 86.95 247 72.85 14.10
Philadelphia Eagles 265 108.56 227 99.64 8.92
New Orleans Saints 256 105.09 234 97.32 7.77
San Diego Chargers 240 97.96 253 93.20 4.76
Carolina Panthers 233 111.38 265 107.34 4.04
Tennessee Titans 213 85.88 259 82.83 3.05
Seattle Seahawks 217 86.90 269 85.08 1.82
Green Bay Packers 239 92.05 197 90.53 1.52
Denver Broncos 282 89.27 262 88.04 1.32
New England Patriots 227 96.91 217 95.75 1.16
New York Giants 246 98.92 239 98.63 0.29
Pittsburgh Steelers 262 97.40 232 98.40 -1.00
Chicago Bears 237 95.55 188 98.65 -3.10
Buffalo Bills 234 101.07 244 105.99 -4.92
Oakland Raiders 284 103.85 231 109.09 -5.24
Detroit Lions 206 82.97 245 88.36 -5.39
New York Jets 241 88.46 260 94.17 -5.71
Cincinnati Bengals 250 85.59 232 93.28 -7.69
Washington Redskins 202 88.98 251 98.74 -9.76
St. Louis Rams 231 81.96 268 93.04 -11.08
Dallas Cowboys 233 82.13 210 94.05 -11.92
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 204 90.80 262 104.74 -13.94
Indianapolis Colts 224 85.81 359 100.38 -14.57
Kansas City Chiefs 269 78.31 289 93.09 -14.78
Arizona Cardinals 219 99.72 266 115.23 -15.51
Jacksonville Jaguars 290 67.44 244 90.17 -22.77
Cleveland Browns 241 60.05 293 88.29 -28.24


Dallas’ DeMarco Murray led all Week 10 rushers with a 133.70 Rusher Rating on 20 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown. Houston’s Arian Foster came in second with a Rusher Rating of 131.52 for the week. Chicago’s Matt Forte, Rashard Mendenhall of the Steelers and Maurice Jones-Drew of the Jacksonville Jaguars round out the top five backs for the week, based on Rusher Rating.
 
Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy still holds the season lead for Rusher Rating. His 135.68 Rusher Rating gives him a comfortable lead over Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson (124.68) and Arizona’s Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells (110.42).
 
Now, the top 10 rushers of the season with a minimum of 120 attempts, based on Rusher Rating:
 
Player Attempts Yards Yards per Attempt TD Fumbles Rusher Rating
LeSean McCoy – PHI 165 906 5.49 10 0 135.68
Adrian Peterson – MIN 180 846 4.70 10 1 124.68
Chris Wells – ARI 146 588 4.03 7 2 110.42
Fred Jackson – BUF 163 917 5.63 6 2 110.09
Ray Rice – BAL 138 559 4.05 6 1 109.71
Rashard Mendenhall – PIT 136 517 3.80 6 1 108.85
Arian Foster – HOU 171 740 4.33 6 0 107.32
Michael Turner – ATL 179 788 4.40 7 2 105.92
Steven Jackson – STL 140 707 5.05 4 1 102.15
Marshawn Lynch – SEA 129 507 3.93 5 2 100.96
 

Here are the top 10 rushers of Week 10 with a minimum of 15 attempts, based on Rusher Rating:
 
Player Attempts Yards Yards per Attempt TD Fumbles Rusher Rating
DeMarco Murray – DAL 20 135 6.75 1 0 133.70
Arian Foster – HOU 17 84 4.94 1 0 131.52
Matt Forte – CHI 18 64 3.56 1 0 121.05
Rashard Mendenhall – PIT 16 44 2.75 2 0 120.64
Maurice Jones-Drew – JAX 25 114 4.56 1 0 112.91
Chris Johnson – TEN 27 130 4.81 1 0 111.71
Michael Bush – OAK 30 157 5.23 1 0 110.75
Marshawn Lynch – SEA 32 109 3.41 1 0 98.90
Chris Ogbonnaya – CLE 19 90 4.74 0 0 78.77
Michael Turner – ATL 22 96 4.36 0 0 76.72
 
 

Situational Statistics

We continue to follow the three running backs featured in the Week 9 Rusher Rating article here on CHFF: McCoy, Peterson and Jackson. Peterson had a bye in Week 9, so his results have not changed. However, we did see some movement in both McCoy and Jackson.
 
With McCoy, his 33-yard touchdown run around left end pushed his Rusher Rating from 122.13 to 133.12 in that running lane. His weekly performance also increased his Rusher Rating on grass fields from 118.92 to 120.87.
 
Jackson saw his trends move the opposite direction, mainly attributed to his fumble in the third quarter against the New York Jets. That dropped his Rusher Rating through the middle of the line from 140.18 to 124.30.
 
Here are the numbers for all three backs through Week 9 of the regular season:
 
LeSean McCoy (Through Week 9):
Player Attempts Yards Yards per Attempt TD Fumbles Rusher Rating
LeSean McCoy – PHI 151 825 5.46 0 1 135.07
 
Running Lane            
Left End 41 206 5.02 3 0 133.12
Left Tackle 19 76 4.00 1 0 120.92
Left Guard 7 37 5.29 1 0 134.56
Center 40 272 6.80 1 0 112.03
Right Guard 6 27 4.50 0 0 77.47
Right Tackle 9 75 8.33 0 0 98.50
Right End 29 132 4.55 3 0 130.53
 
Attempts            
1 through 10 79 405 5.13 3 0 114.24
11 through 20 50 319 6.38 5 0 140.56
21 through 30 22 101 4.59 1 0 117.87
 
Field Position            
Own 1-20 22 104 4.73 0 0 78.72
Own 21-50 47 309 6.57 0 0 88.85
Opponent 49-20 53 318 6.00 2 0 118.82
Redzone 29 94 3.24 7 0 123.34
 
Half            
1st 80 370 4.63 3 0 111.07
2nd 71 455 6.41 6 0 140.72
Last 2 Minutes 4 23 5.75 1 0 137.11
 
Quarter            
1st 39 195 5.00 1 0 102.72
2nd 41 175 4.27 2 0 119.02
3rd 42 237 5.64 4 0 136.52
4th 29 218 7.52 2 0 146.80
Last 7 Minutes 13 60 4.62 0 0 78.10
 
Field Type            
Grass 107 528 4.93 5 0 120.87
Turf 44 297 6.75 4 0 142.59
 
 
Adrian Peterson (Through Week 9):
Player Attempts Yards Yards per Attempt TD Fumbles Rusher Rating
Adrian Peterson – MIN 167 798 4.78 9 1 123.44
 
Running Lane            
Left End 14 69 4.93 1 0 132.60
Left Tackle 17 60 3.53 1 0 123.78
Left Guard 22 79 3.59 0 0 72.48
Center 65 346 5.32 4 1 127.41
Right Guard 22 93 4.23 3 0 128.75
Right Tackle 14 108 7.71 0 0 60.98
Right End 13 43 3.31 0 0 70.93
 
Attempts            
1 through 10 80 414 5.18 6 1 127.98
11 through 20 65 317 4.88 3 0 120.05
21 through 30 22 67 3.05 0 0 69.49
 
Field Position            
Own 1-20 38 174 4.58 0 0 77.90
Own 21-50 56 328 5.86 0 1 76.38
Opponent 49-20 46 208 4.52 1 0 96.67
Redzone 27 88 3.26 8 0 123.44
 
Half            
1st 87 459 5.28 7 1 129.01
2nd 80 339 4.24 2 0 97.97
Last 2 Minutes 6 64 10.67 1 0 158.33
 
Quarter            
1st 52 260 5.00 4 0 132.99
2nd 35 199 5.69 3 1 123.10
3rd 34 213 6.26 2 0 138.79
4th 46 126 2.74 0 0 67.81
Last 7 Minutes 24 76 3.17 0 0 70.15
 
Field Type            
Grass 72 303 4.21 2 0 100.25
Turf 95 495 5.21 7 1 129.12
 
 
Fred Jackson (Through Week 9):
Player Attempts Yards Yards per Attempt TD Fumbles Rusher Rating
Fred Jackson – BUF 150 803 5.35 6 1 114.08
 
Running Lane            
Left End 10 71 7.10 0 0 91.74
Left Tackle 17 96 5.65 1 0 135.40
Left Guard 25 125 5.00 2 0 132.99
Center 54 311 5.76 3 1 124.30
Right Guard 21 117 5.57 0 0 83.35
Right Tackle 17 42 2.47 0 0 66.33
Right End 6 41 6.83 0 0 90.27
 
Attempts            
1 through 10 80 499 6.24 4 0 130.89
11 through 20 58 270 4.66 2 1 100.35
21 through 30 12 34 2.83 0 0 68.32
 
Field Position            
Own 1-20 27 258 9.56 1 0 137.72
Own 21-50 48 204 4.25 0 1 66.14
Opponent 49-20 52 287 5.52 1 0 99.94
Redzone 23 54 2.35 4 0 118.44
 
Half            
1st 80 438 5.48 3 0 115.74
2nd 70 365 5.21 3 1 112.18
Last 2 Minutes 10 43 4.30 1 0 129.15
 
Quarter            
1st 39 265 6.79 2 0 135.08
2nd 41 173 4.22 1 0 97.34
3rd 42 281 6.69 1 1 99.01
4th 28 84 3.00 2 0 122.02
Last 7 Minutes 17 24 1.41 2 0 113.30
 
Field Type            
Grass 20 112 5.60 0 0 83.50
Turf 130 691 5.32 6 1 118.78
 
 

Real Running Back Rating

As we discussed last week, the missing component to the Rusher Rating System is the receiving component. With this final component, we now have a Real Running Back Rating. Looking at the season leaders (based on Rusher Rating) through Week 10 of the NFL regular season (minimum 120 attempts) we have the following (Listed by Real Running Back Rating):
 
Player Receptions Receiving Yards Receiving TD Rusher Rating Real RB Rating Diff.
LeSean McCoy – PHI 31 196 2 135.68 114.43 -21.25
Adrian Peterson – MIN 16 125 1 124.68 109.43 -15.25
Arian Foster – HOU 31 445 2 107.32 109.32 +2.00
Ray Rice – BAL 46 470 2 109.71 97.42 -12.29
Steven Jackson – STL 20 118 1 102.15 86.83 -15.32
Fred Jackson – BUF 34 392 0 110.09 83.75 -26.34
Michael Turner – ATL 9 115 0 105.92 82.64 -23.28
Rashard Mendenhall – PIT 11 77 0 108.85 75.84 -33.01
Marshawn Lynch – SEA 17 149 0 100.96 74.08 -26.88
Chris Wells – ARI 6 25 0 110.42 72.58 -37.84
 
As we can see from the list, Foster is the only running back that improved when we added the receiving component. Conversely, Wells saw the largest differential between Rusher Rating and Real Running Back Rating.
  
 

How the Rusher Rating is Calculated
 

Here is how each component is calculated:
 
Average Yards Gained per Attempt (YD) = [Total Yards/(4.05 * Rushing Attempts)]
 
Percentage of TDs per Carry (TD) = [(39.5*Touchdowns)/Rushing Attempts]
 
Percentage of Fumbles per Carry (F) = [2.375-((21.5*Fumbles)/Rushing Attempts)]
 
Adding these components together and adjusting to a scale of 158.3 (the same as the NFL Passer Rating System) yields:
 
Rusher Rating = [(YD) + (TD) + (F)] * (100/4.5)
 
 

How the Real Running Back Rating is Calculated
 

Now, we look at the Real Running Back Rating. Here are the updated equations with the receiving components:
 
Average Yards Gained per Attempt (YD) = [Total Yards/(4.05 * Rushing Attempts)]
 
Percentage of TDs per Carry (RUSHTD) = [(39.5*Touchdowns)/Rushing Attempts]
 
Average Yards Gained per Reception (REC) = [Receiving Yards/(9*Receptions)]
 
Percentage of TDs per Reception (RECTD) = [(27.5*Touchdowns)/Receptions]
 
Percentage of Fumbles per Touch (F) = [2.375-((21.5*Fumbles)/(Rushes + Receptions))]
 
Adding these components together and adjusting to a scale of 158.3 yields:
 
Rusher Rating = [(YD) + (RUSHTD) + (REC) + (RECTD) + (F)] * (100/7.5)